Over the past week and a bit, several ships carrying Ukrainian grain that had not yet left port have been hit by Russian missiles. The attacks appear to signal a change in strategy for Russia. A period of relative calm had seen global wheat prices stabilize. Since Ukraine started its unilateral coast-hugging Black Sea corridor about a year ago, there had been something of an uneasy and unofficial truce in the Black Sea. Russia laid off attacks in the western half, while Ukraine stopped attacks in the eastern half.
Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister Oleksiy Kuleba has accused Russia of attempting to “destroy shipping in the Black Sea guaranteeing food security”. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha called Russia’s move a “deliberate terrorist tactic”.
Before the recent strikes on ships, commercial vessels had avoided any major damage in the eastern Black Sea or in Ukrainian ports, with Russian missiles being directed towards Ukraine’s port infrastructure.
When Russia began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, it mounted a blockade of all of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports. This led to a significant rise in global grain prices, and particularly hard-hit when it came to supplies were Lebanon, Somalia, Egypt and other African nations. That was not a good PR look for Russia, so in July 2022 a deal, brokered by the UN and Turkiye, was reached under which a Blak Sea corridor was created.
Russia quickly became unhappy with the agreement, noting that the intention – to supply developing nations with the wheat they needed – had turned into supplying western Europe with the wheat it needed. The deal was renewed for increasingly short periods until in July 2023 it was abandoned by Russia.
Ukraine then put together a unilateral corridor that kept close to the coasts of Ukraine, Romania and Bulgaria before reaching Istanbul and the Bosphorus Strait. Ukraine’s success in the “Black Sea war” – unexpected, given its lack of a Navy – led to grain exports restabilizing.
The recent strikes on ships by Russia might not have a large absolute effect, but they are an example of “economic war”. They bring uncertainty for Ukrainian farmers, who need to buy seeds for the sowing season, and they cause insurance premiums to rise for commercial vessels – reducing the appeal for commercial shipping planning to carry Ukrainian grains.
Dmitry Gorenburg, a senior research scientist at US-based security-focused think tank CNA, told Al Jazeera that the new sequence of attacks suggested that the unofficial and unspoken agreement between Ukraine and Russia to cool things down in the Black Sea might have come to an end. Russia’s thinking could be that, while it harms Russia slightly, it harms Ukraine far more.
“Russia wasn’t targeting grain ships and Ukraine was largely staying away from Russian Navy ships in the eastern Black Sea,” Gorenburg told Al Jazeera. He thought that Ukraine might respond by resuming drone attacks on Russian assets in the eastern half of the Black Sea.