Tropical Storm Helene was expected to turn eastward on its track through the Caribbean and into the Gulf of Mexico, increasing the threat of high winds and heavy rains to Cuba and Florida, but reducing the risk to US offshore oil production, forecasters said on Tuesday.
As of Tuesday evening the storm was moving through the Caribbean. It was expected to enter the Gulf of Mexico and become a hurricane by Wednesday.
Its current track would take it along the west coast of Florida toward a landfall on the state’s panhandle late on Thursday September 26th. That path would steer it clear of the Gulf’s major energy production areas. US offshore producers had shut-in 16% of Gulf of Mexico oil and 11% of natural gas output, the offshore regulator said on Tuesday. The region in total makes up 15% of US oil and 2% of natural gas production.
DTN meteorologist Kevin Mahoney noted that Helene was a very rapidly developing system, with a potentially large wind field.
Shell, which was the first Gulf of Mexico oil producer to shut in oil and gas production this week, said it was restoring output at a platform that was about 200 miles southwest of New Orleans. “With a shift in forecast track, we are beginning the process of restoring production at Stones,” Shell said. However, its output at another platform further east in the Gulf, the Appomattox, continued to be curtailed.
Besides Shell, producers BP, Chevron, and Equinor have withdrawn some offshore staff. Several have paused some oil and gas production ahead of the storm’s arrival.