One of the best-known percentages in the global oil sector is that 20% of the world’s crude passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Therefore any global events that impact that traffic are likely to have wide-ranging effects on the supply of oil globally and the movements of tankers.
Rob Bousso, Reuters’ energy columnist, said that the global energy markets was facing “one of their gravest shocks in decades”. He said that the scale of the disruption would probably be determined by the duration of the conflict, “but for now the threat and the uncertainty are already enough to severely impact flows from the region”.
Bousso said that, barring a swift resolution, oil prices were likely to experience steep increases when trading opened this morning (Monday). Benchmark Brent crude oil prices had already risen in recent weeks to around $70 a barrel, their highest since August 2025 .
Oil futures markets are closed on Saturday and Sunday, but trading is available on the spread-betting markets. London-based IG Group’s spread on West Texas Intermediate early on Saturday was up by about 5%, but the company’s clients clearly saw this as a buy opportunity, and pushed the rise at one point to up 12%.
For the moment there has been no confirmed damage to oil and gas infrastructure from retaliatory Iranian strikes.
Iran’s crude oil exports increased rapidly in February, and the oil inventories at Kharg Island – possibly vulnerable to air strikes – had been brought down significantly from recent highs. These moves meant that Iran has been prepared for zero loadings at the oil terminal in case of renewed air attacks.
Explosions were heard near Iran’s Kharg Island, according to Reuters reports. The facility is Iran’s single most important energy asset – 90% of its crude oil exports flow through the terminal, which is located 15 miles offshore in deeper Gulf waters. In recent days the terminal had stepped up exports and drained its crude inventories, suggesting Iran may have anticipated the strikes.
As of Sunday morning Ed Finley-Richardson, tanker analyst, said that the few tankers left near Kharg were at anchor, all in ballast. Another 100 or so were near Fujairah, stationary.
The risk that tankers could be stranded inside the Gulf, north of Hormuz, or that vessels could be targeted, has been sufficient to force producers, traders and shippers to reassess their plans for movements of oil and LNG.
The caution currently in place by states and companies is unlikely to ease until there is far greater confidence in the safety of the region’s sea lanes, thought Bousso.
In a post on X, intelligence service provider Skytek identified more than 100 container ships, 450 oil and gas tankers and 200 bulk carriers currently within the region of the Strait of Hormuz.
The United States Navy declared a sweeping maritime warning zone across the Persian Gulf region on Saturday after large-scale U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran triggered immediate retaliation from Tehran, throwing global energy markets into turmoil and forcing major oil companies to suspend shipments through the world’s most critical chokepoint.
The warning zone, covering the Middle East Gulf, Gulf of Oman, North Arabian Sea, and Strait of Hormuz, came with an unusual admission from U.S. Navy Central Command: it could not guarantee the safety of neutral or merchant shipping within the area. Merchant vessels were advised to maintain a distance of at least 30 nautical miles from any naval vessel operating in what the Pentagon has designated “Operation Epic Fury.”
“The US/Israeli attack on Iran dramatically increases the security risk to ships operating in the Persian Gulf and adjacent waters,” warned Jakob Larsen, chief safety and security officer at shipping association BIMCO, in an interview with Lloyds List.
The strikes, which targeted Iranian leadership according to Reuters, prompted an immediate response from Tehran, which launched missiles toward Israel. Smoke was reported rising over Manama, Bahrain, following what were described as Iranian missile attacks, a stark indication that the conflict has already spread beyond the immediate combatants to affect neighbouring Gulf states.
Some oil majors and top trading houses suspended tanker shipments via the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday. The strait carries approximately 21 million barrels of oil daily from Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates – making any disruption a potential shock to global energy supplies.
“It is very tricky,” a senior energy trader told the Financial Times. “Targeted attacks could result in chaos.”
ran pumped 3.45 million barrels per day in January, according to the International Energy Agency—less than 3 percent of global supply. However, the country holds the world’s fourth-largest proven crude reserves, and almost all of its exports flow to China, where Iranian crude accounts for roughly 13 percent of seaborne oil imports, according to energy data firm Kpler.
Some shipowners were considering cancelling already-fixed voyages into the Middle East, said shipbrokers, citing a war clause that gives them the right to do so should hostilities break out between a list of countries including the US and Iran. This could tighten the supply of vessels in the region, further supporting high freight rates that have recently soared to the highest level in years.
The Known Unknowns
Strategically:
- How long will it last? will the US continue? Long Or Short?
- How will Iran react?
- What is the political situation within Iran? Who has the upper hand?
Israeli defence analyst Yoav Limor warned that gaps could soon emerge between the US and Israel. “Israel has all the patience and readiness to prosecute this war for several days or weeks, perhaps even longer,” he suggests, “but it is not clear that Trump has the same level of patience and cool headedness.”
On Sunday the attacks continued in Tehran, possibly to an even greater degree than the initial wave of attacks on Saturday, which Israeli media claimed took out about 30 senior Iranian officials “within minutes”.
Tactically, critical questions remained unanswered as the situation developed. The full extent of damage from the US-Israeli strikes has not been disclosed.
It remains unclear whether Kharg Island’s terminal infrastructure was directly targeted or damaged and how bad the damage to the US Navy’s base in Bahrain is.
The scale of any Houthi retaliation against commercial shipping is also unknown, as is the duration of the maritime warning zone now in effect across the Gulf region.