The maritime sector will pay and estimated €8.4bn ($9.2b) in 2026 in taxes and costs generated by the European Emissions Trading System (ETS), according to Hecla Emissions Management, a company founded by Wilhelm Ship Management and Affinity Shipping.
The EU’s Monitoring, Reporting and Verification (EU MRV) regulation requires all ships exceeding 5,000 gt to collect and report data on CO2 emissions released to and from EU and European Economic Area (EEA) ports, which will serve as the basis for shipping’s inclusion in the EU ETS from January 1st 2024. The data showed some significant year-on-year changes from 2021, with total ETS-applicable emissions for the maritime industry amounted to 83.4m tonnes of CO2 in 2022, down by just 0.22% from 2021. At the current market value of €90 per emissions allowance (EUA), shipping emissions carried a total worth of €7.5bn for the year.
Taking into account the ETS phase-in period, covering 40% of emissions in 2024, 70% in 2025 and 100% in 2026, and utilizing the forward curve in EUAs, the estimates indicate that the shipping industry could be liable for €3.1b in 2024, €5.7bn in 2025 and €8.4bn in 2026, according to Hecla.
The data showed emission declines across multiple shipping segments, including tankers, container ships, general cargo ships, reefers, ro-ro and chemical tankers.
The container sector showed the largest reduction, falling by 8.95% (2.3m tonnes of CO2 saved), said Hecla.